The strong growth in UK GDP reported in the first quarter will not be sustained. At best the economy is set to stagnate again in the second quarter, and possibly in the third too. Some good news for a change. The first official estimate for the first quarter confirmed that the UK economy made a flying start … Continue reading “As good as it gets” (reprise)
Tag: interest rates
Rachel Reeves can’t escape blame for this mess
Now, perhaps more than ever, Britain needs a stronger Chancellor The question no longer seems to be whether Keir Starmer will survive, but when and how he will go, and who will succeed him. Even if the Prime Minister clings on for a few more weeks or months, his authority is shot. Either way, the … Continue reading Rachel Reeves can’t escape blame for this mess
Subdued money growth should limit inflation risks
The jump in UK inflation from 3.0% to 3.3% in March is obviously bad news but not quite as bad as some had feared (or at least no worse). In particular, the Bank of England had expected this number to be “close to 3½%” when interest rates were left on hold last month. Moreover, this jump can … Continue reading Subdued money growth should limit inflation risks
Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
In the early stages of the Iran crisis the markets priced in a relatively benign scenario. The conflict was expected to be short, lasting days if not weeks, with limited fallout for energy prices and for the global economy. A month on, this has proved to be far too optimistic. Indeed, the future looks increasingly … Continue reading Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
Plain-speaking Economics 