Including thoughts on the latest news from the labour market (not all bad), signs that the economy retains some positive momentum, and what could still go wrong - including autumn hikes in both taxes and interest rates. Theme of the Week This week’s official labour market data were grim. The UK economy continues to shed payroll jobs, … Continue reading Weekly wrap – is UK productivity finally recovering?
Tag: PMIs
Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery
Let us start with the good news. The UK economy is set to beat expectations this year and outperform the euro area, boosting the appeal of UK assets to overseas investors. UK GDP grew by a solid 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and this rate is likely to be matched in the second. Even … Continue reading Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery
Inflation risks are building – but does anybody care?
Many people have already written about how the ‘spectre of inflation’ has returned to haunt global investors. In reality, financial markets are still surprisingly relaxed about the risks, and most measures of inflation expectations have risen only slightly. This seems increasingly complacent. In part this reflects the persistently dovish messages from the world’s major central … Continue reading Inflation risks are building – but does anybody care?
‘V’ for recovery!
The recovery in the UK economy is already taking shape nicely – and the shape looks increasingly like a ‘V’, where activity 'bounces back’ quickly and returns to more normal levels much sooner than most currently expect. Despite this, many commentators are still pessimistic and even eager to emphasise the downside risks. It is time … Continue reading ‘V’ for recovery!
Plain-speaking Economics 