In a recent interview with the Financial Times, former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made the striking claim that ‘in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70%’. This claim is garbage, for two reasons. Unfortunately, it is just one of a tsunami of fake statistics … Continue reading What Mark Carney got wrong
Many people have been baffled by the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates by a historically large three-quarters of a point this week, despite forecasting that the UK economy is sliding into recession. I understand this confusion, but there are three reasons why rates had to be increased. First, the job of the … Continue reading Why the Bank of England was right to raise rates
Let’s start with the good news. This change of Prime Minister undoubtedly makes a difference for the better. The Conservatives have finally found a leader with a decent chance of making it until the next General Election, providing some much-needed political stability. The financial markets have reacted positively too: the pound has strengthened, the cost … Continue reading Rishi Sunak offers greater stability, but also more pain
The new Government is clearly in an almighty mess, but I’ll leave the political commentary to others. Here are some thoughts on the economics and the markets. Let’s start by summarising what went wrong. The tipping point was the mini-Budget in September. The mistake here was not the Energy Price Guarantee, or the cancellation of … Continue reading Can ‘Trussonomics’ survive?