Tag: GDP

Our economic emergency is almost over

For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There is a much more positive story than the Chancellor told in Wednesday’s Spending Review 2020. Let’s start with the near-term outlook… The OBR assumes that the economic impact of the second lockdown will be ‘three-fifths’ that seen during … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over

Sunak breaks the fundamental rule: ‘first, do no harm’

I’m only just coming to terms with how cross I am about the Chancellor’s speech today. This should have been a relatively uneventful one-year Spending Review, setting departmental limits for 2021-22, and summarising the latest economic and fiscal forecasts from the OBR. But, in my opinion, Rishi Sunak made two big mistakes. First, he got … Continue reading Sunak breaks the fundamental rule: ‘first, do no harm’

Six things the Chancellor should (or shouldn’t) do to boost the recovery

On Wednesday Rishi Sunak will announce a one-year Spending Review for 2021-22. This will not be a full Budget, but there is still a huge amount of mostly unhelpful speculation about what might be in it, and what’s coming next. There does at seem to be a broad consensus that the Chancellor should ‘go for growth’. … Continue reading Six things the Chancellor should (or shouldn’t) do to boost the recovery

How more accurate data help to explain the relatively large fall in UK GDP

There is a lively debate among economists about the way in which UK statisticians are estimating the impact of Covid and the lockdown on the output of the public sector. This is a relatively arcane topic and the mainstream media can be forgiven for not yet covering it. But it is important, not least because … Continue reading How more accurate data help to explain the relatively large fall in UK GDP