Toby Young has been given plenty of stick for an article which asked whether the UK government has overreacted to the coronavirus crisis by locking down the economy, and which concluded that it had. In my view, he was right to pose the question, but gave the wrong answer. The thrust of his argument is … Continue reading Is it worth it?
How hard will coronavirus hit UK GDP? This may seem like the wrong question to ask in the midst of a health emergency. The new coronavirus outbreak is a social crisis above all else. Even in narrow economic terms, some sort of hit to GDP is inevitable and even desirable: we actually want many people … Continue reading UK economy makes a handbrake turn
I’ve not said much about the impact of the new coronavirus, partly because it’s a human tragedy and commenting on the economic and market implications can seem insensitive. It can also be hard not to appear complacent. But given the mounting concerns, reflected in the sharp falls in global equity prices in the past week, … Continue reading First thoughts on the coronavirus outbreak
Ever since the 2016 referendum, Brexit pessimists have been highlighting the damage that they think has already been done to UK GDP by the vote to leave. This narrative is looking increasingly tired. Indeed, last year the UK economy actually grew faster than its peers in the rest of the EU. Now that Brexit is … Continue reading Has Brexit Britain turned the corner?
It’s increasingly popular to criticise GDP as a measure of the success of an economy. Indeed, New Zealand’s ‘Wellbeing Budget’ of 2019 was widely praised as a ‘world first’ for its emphasis on a range of other metrics. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rishi Sunak is encouraged to adopt similar language in his first Budget … Continue reading In defence of GDP
Economists are divided on whether there will be a significant boost to the UK economy from a reduction in Brexit uncertainty. I’m optimistic and expect growth to accelerate over the course of 2020 and beyond. Others are not, arguing that the best we can expect is more certainty of a bad outcome. Here’s a summary … Continue reading Is the ‘Brexit bounce’ the real deal?
Ever since the 2016 referendum, economists have attempted to estimate what Brexit ‘has already cost’ the UK economy and households. It won’t be a surprise to see some of the most depressing numbers dusted off this week to mark the departure from the EU. But all these studies should be taken with a large pinch … Continue reading Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?