Tag: GDP

Time to ditch the National Insurance hike

The case for scrapping the increase in National Insurance contributions (NICs) planned for April is now so overwhelming that is hard to find good arguments in favour of keeping it. I’ve seen a few, but they are easy to knock down. Nick Macpherson, formerly the top civil servant at the Treasury, has tweeted that ‘National … Continue reading Time to ditch the National Insurance hike

Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

It’s still far too soon to unwrap ‘Plan B’

If the latest rumours are correct, the UK government will soon announce new Covid restrictions in response to the spread of the Omicron variant. Throughout the pandemic my instinct has been to give the policy-makers and their advisors the benefit of the doubt. But any such move now would make little sense. Starting with the … Continue reading It’s still far too soon to unwrap ‘Plan B’