The strong growth in UK GDP reported in the first quarter will not be sustained. At best the economy is set to stagnate again in the second quarter, and possibly in the third too. Some good news for a change. The first official estimate for the first quarter confirmed that the UK economy made a flying start … Continue reading “As good as it gets” (reprise)
Tag: retail
An online sales tax would be more trouble than it is worth
The UK government has been consulting on the concept of an ‘online sales tax’, or OST, which could raise £1-2 billion annually to help pay for a reduction in business rates for physical retailers. I submitted a response to the consultation, which is available here... ost-consultation-response-20-may-2022-julian-jessopDownload
The pros and (mostly) cons of an online sales tax
The Sunday Times has reported that UK officials are mulling two new taxes on digital businesses – an online sales tax and an ‘excess profits tax’ – in order to help fill the hole in the public finances and support the High Street. In my view, both are bad ideas. In general, economists quite like … Continue reading The pros and (mostly) cons of an online sales tax
Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
The lacklustre GDP data in May have put a significant dent in hopes of a rapid turnaround in the UK economy, but I’m not going to bin my relatively optimistic forecasts just yet. I still expect the shape of the recovery to look roughly like a 'V', with GDP back close to pre-Covid levels by … Continue reading Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
Plain-speaking Economics 