A quick primer on ‘Omicronomics’

Here are some first thoughts on 'Omicronomics', or the economic impact of the new Covid restrictions announced for England over the weekend. The main short-term risk to the UK economy comes from the tightening of the self-isolation rules: contacts of those testing positive for the Omicron variant will have to stay at home for up … Continue reading A quick primer on ‘Omicronomics’

Will Brexit really shrink the UK economy by 4 per cent?

"Now it’s official. The Government’s own fiscal watchdog has confirmed that Brexit will shrink the UK economy by 4pc, costing the average household thousands of pounds." This is how many are interpreting the latest analysis by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which was published alongside the October Budget. This analysis seems to be … Continue reading Will Brexit really shrink the UK economy by 4 per cent?

UK economy to catch up by Christmas

Most of the coverage of the latest UK GDP figures has been downbeat. Two headlines sum up the responses: ‘the best of the recovery is behind us’, and ‘the UK economy has reclaimed its status as the G7’s laggard’. ‘Stagflation’ is back on the agenda again too. I would rather focus on the positives, but let’s begin … Continue reading UK economy to catch up by Christmas