Consumers, businesses, and investors are increasingly optimistic about the prospects for the UK economy, and independent forecasts are continually being revised up. Policymakers at the Treasury and Bank of England should now be reassessing their plans too. The consensus at the start of the year was that UK GDP would grow by around 4% in … Continue reading It’s time to pause QE
Many people have written about how the ‘spectre of inflation’ has returned to haunt investors. In fact, the financial markets are still remarkably sanguine, reassured by dovish comments from central banks. This was reasonable in the depths of the Covid recession. Now it looks increasingly complacent. There has already been a sharp rise in government … Continue reading How much should we worry about inflation?
On balance, I think Rishi Sunak got more things right than wrong in Wednesday’s Budget. Let’s start with a couple of positives. First, he extended the most important support measures, including the uplift to Universal Credit and the furlough scheme, until the end of September. This is probably longer than strictly necessary because the remaining … Continue reading Two cheers and one boo for the Budget
Here are the slides from a v-talk I gave today (25 February 2021) to A-level students... economics-of-covid-25-feb-2021Download