"Now it’s official. The Government’s own fiscal watchdog has confirmed that Brexit will shrink the UK economy by 4pc, costing the average household thousands of pounds." This is how many are interpreting the latest analysis by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which was published alongside the October Budget. This analysis seems to be … Continue reading Will Brexit really shrink the UK economy by 4 per cent?
The Treasury’s “fiscal rules” are rather like New Year’s resolutions: many of us make them, but few keep them. Nonetheless, after the spending binge during the pandemic, the Government needs some sort of framework to bring borrowing back under control. We may not have to wait much longer. The Chancellor is expected to unveil new … Continue reading Sunak must keep trying to cut tax before the next election
The Treasury is keeping busy, but hopefully not too busy. On the same day as the Prime Minister unveiled the ‘health and social care levy’, the Chancellor revealed last week that we will only have to wait another 50 days for the Autumn Budget, due on October 27. The focus next month will probably be on … Continue reading Stronger economy should save us from further tax rises
Consumers, businesses, and investors are increasingly optimistic about the prospects for the UK economy, and independent forecasts are continually being revised up. Policymakers at the Treasury and Bank of England should now be reassessing their plans too. The consensus at the start of the year was that UK GDP would grow by around 4% in … Continue reading It’s time to pause QE