Although not as bad as the dark days of the 1970s, the UK economy is heading for a period of falling activity, rising inflation, and higher unemployment. Government tinkering with prices won't help. By overwhelming popular demand (Sid and Doris Bonkers), I’m launching a weekly wrap of the key points made in my social media … Continue reading Weekly wrap – the UK is heading for “stagflation-lite”
Tag: PMI
Better UK economic news owes little to Labour’s policy choices
Friday was a relatively good day for UK economic data, with the latest news on the public finances, retail sales, and the PMI survey all better than expected. This followed Wednesday’s confirmation that headline inflation fell back in January. But is this really evidence that the worst is over – and are the Labour government … Continue reading Better UK economic news owes little to Labour’s policy choices
Is the UK economy “turning the corner”?
The past week was packed with new data releases which sent some mixed signals on the health of the UK economy and the prospects for 2026. This note takes stock. The most encouraging news came from the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index, which jumped to 53.9 in January from 51.4 in December. … Continue reading Is the UK economy “turning the corner”?
Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
The news that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, lifting the three-month growth rate to 0.6%, is obviously welcome. But these ONS figures should come plastered with health warnings. For a start, monthly GDP data are notoriously volatile, and often revised. A sharp correction is possible in March and especially in April, when … Continue reading Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
Plain-speaking Economics 