“Treasury Orthodoxy” gets a bad rap. Shuffling responsibilities is pointless unless the policy choices improve. And the fiscal rules, OBR, and bond market vigilantes will all still be big constraints. Andy Burnham has announced that responsibility for national economic growth policy will move from HM Treasury to No.10 North. I am surprised that this announcement … Continue reading A sceptical first take on moving growth policy from HMT to No.10 North
Tag: growth
Is the UK economy “turning the corner”?
The past week was packed with new data releases which sent some mixed signals on the health of the UK economy and the prospects for 2026. This note takes stock. The most encouraging news came from the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index, which jumped to 53.9 in January from 51.4 in December. … Continue reading Is the UK economy “turning the corner”?
Lies, damn lies, and Spending Review soundbites
On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her ‘Spending Review 2025’. This will set day-to-day budgets for all government departments for the three years from 2026-27 to 2028-29, and investment spending plans for a further year, to 2029-30. As usual, many of the details have already been revealed. In particular, ministers have trumpeted a ‘transformative … Continue reading Lies, damn lies, and Spending Review soundbites
UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
The first official estimates suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, which was better than most had expected. GDP per head increased by a respectable 0.5%. On the bright side, this should trigger a wave of upward revisions to growth forecasts for 2025 as a whole. (I … Continue reading UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
Plain-speaking Economics 