I know 2021 will be another tough year for many people and businesses, but I’m aiming here to provide some counterbalance to the more negative commentary you can easily find elsewhere... 1. The household sector (in aggregate) has built up substantial savings during the pandemic that could be used to fuel a strong recovery in … Continue reading 12 reasons to be more cheerful about the UK economy in 2021
The planned closure of the original job retention scheme (CJRS) at the end of October has focused attention again on the prospects for unemployment. A ‘top down’ approach (based on GDP) suggests that UK unemployment could rise to more than 3 million, or 10% of the workforce. But a less pessimistic ‘bottom up’ approach suggests … Continue reading How far will UK unemployment rise?
In case of interest, here's a presentation I made on 1st October to students of economics and finance on "The digital economy in a time of Covid". It covers topics such as the growth of online retail, zero-hours contracts, the pros and cons of homeworking - and why Amazon apparently pays so little tax... digital-economy-covid-oct-2020Download
Ever since the 2016 referendum, economists have attempted to estimate what Brexit ‘has already cost’ the UK economy and households. It won’t be a surprise to see some of the most depressing numbers dusted off this week to mark the departure from the EU. But all these studies should be taken with a large pinch … Continue reading Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?