What’s happening in the labour market is arguably the most important economic news every month. Despite that, the quality of the commentary is often poor, with many sources apparently too keen to focus on the negatives. The reactions to the latest release from the ONS provide more examples. The early headlines were dominated by the … Continue reading The good news on unemployment
Many people argue that the Covid crisis has demonstrated the need for government to take a bigger role in the economy, in good times as well as bad. When asked to suggest five policies to help the recovery their ‘wish lists’ are therefore full of ways in which the state could do even more. In … Continue reading More state intervention is not the answer to reviving our economy
I know 2021 will be another tough year for many people and businesses, but I’m aiming here to provide some counterbalance to the more negative commentary you can easily find elsewhere... 1. The household sector (in aggregate) has built up substantial savings during the pandemic that could be used to fuel a strong recovery in … Continue reading 12 reasons to be more cheerful about the UK economy in 2021
The planned closure of the original job retention scheme (CJRS) at the end of October has focused attention again on the prospects for unemployment. A ‘top down’ approach (based on GDP) suggests that UK unemployment could rise to more than 3 million, or 10% of the workforce. But a less pessimistic ‘bottom up’ approach suggests … Continue reading How far will UK unemployment rise?