The German economy is stagnating. Last year was bad enough. The first official estimates suggest that output (measured by GDP) shrank by 0.3 per cent over 2023 as a whole – a full year recession – with output also down by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter alone. Unfortunately, the omens for 2024 are … Continue reading What’s gone wrong in Germany?
Tag: PMI
Ignore the gloomsters, the economy is roaring back
The horror! Yesterday we discovered that UK economic output — as measured by GDP — fell by 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year, 0.1 per cent worse than the 1.5 per cent originally reported. This is practically a rounding error. To put it in context, as recently as March the Office for Budget Responsibility, … Continue reading Ignore the gloomsters, the economy is roaring back
Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
The lacklustre GDP data in May have put a significant dent in hopes of a rapid turnaround in the UK economy, but I’m not going to bin my relatively optimistic forecasts just yet. I still expect the shape of the recovery to look roughly like a 'V', with GDP back close to pre-Covid levels by … Continue reading Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
Plain-speaking Economics 