The recovery in the UK economy is already taking shape nicely – and the shape looks increasingly like a ‘V’, where activity 'bounces back’ quickly and returns to more normal levels much sooner than most currently expect. Despite this, many commentators are still pessimistic and even eager to emphasise the downside risks. It is time … Continue reading ‘V’ for recovery!
he UK’s latest labour market data, released this morning, have predictably led to fresh calls for even more state intervention to ‘create’ jobs, or at least ‘protect’ them. But the most important thing the government can do now is to continue to lift the lockdown. Let’s deal briefly first with the headline unemployment rate, which … Continue reading UK unemployment – how bad will it get?
The focus of economic policy is starting to shift from protecting businesses, jobs and incomes during the lockdown towards supporting the recovery. Business lobbies, ‘big state’ think tanks, academics and the TUC are all lining up to call for a huge fiscal stimulus. However, more intervention now could be exactly the wrong choice. Instead, we … Continue reading The economy could pleasantly surprise us at how fast it recovers
The economic data to be reported over the next few weeks will be pretty grim, adding to the social costs of coronavirus. But if you look beyond the headlines, there are at least half a dozen good reasons to be positive about the prospects for the recovery that will follow. First, the recovery has already … Continue reading Six reasons to be optimistic about the economic recovery