On Wednesday, Liz Truss will use the Margaret Thatcher memorial lecture in Washington to call the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) a “global cartel of complacency” whose high tax policies are holding back growth. I fear she is right. In particular, Ms Truss will warn against the OECD’s plan for a minimum 15 … Continue reading The OECD’s minimum tax plan is dangerous showboating
Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?
Speculation that Liz Truss is about to make to return to frontline politics has prompted a flurry of dodgy claims and daft statistics about the economic cost of last September’s mini-Budget. Here's a quick debunking of the most common. I’ll start with the biggest number: £74 billion (sometimes cited as £73 billion). This appears to … Continue reading Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?
Rishi Sunak offers greater stability, but also more pain
Let’s start with the good news. This change of Prime Minister undoubtedly makes a difference for the better. The Conservatives have finally found a leader with a decent chance of making it until the next General Election, providing some much-needed political stability. The financial markets have reacted positively too: the pound has strengthened, the cost … Continue reading Rishi Sunak offers greater stability, but also more pain
Can ‘Trussonomics’ survive?
The new Government is clearly in an almighty mess, but I’ll leave the political commentary to others. Here are some thoughts on the economics and the markets. Let’s start by summarising what went wrong. The tipping point was the mini-Budget in September. The mistake here was not the Energy Price Guarantee, or the cancellation of … Continue reading Can ‘Trussonomics’ survive?