Tag: forecasts

Our economic emergency is almost over

(This piece was written on 27th November. Since then the new survey evidence has suggested that the hit to GDP from the November lockdown was smaller than expected, which is obviously consistent with the relatively upbeat message here.) For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over

A deeper dive into the OECD’s forecasts

On Wednesday the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook presented a relatively downbeat assessment of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy (more ‘U’ than ‘V’). The report also flagged up some specific concerns about the vulnerability of the UK, which prompted some particularly gloomy headlines here. But is the OECD on to anything … Continue reading A deeper dive into the OECD’s forecasts

Five times the City got it wrong on Brexit

"Buy British, Goldman Sachs tells clients". I had mixed feelings on reading this headline. It’s reassuring that the City is waking up to the prospect of an upturn in the economy next year. Goldman is surely right that clarity on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU should emerge sooner under a Conservative … Continue reading Five times the City got it wrong on Brexit