If you are trying to predict the outlook for unemployment it is, of course, essential to get the starting point right. This blog therefore runs through the latest available official data and employment surveys. A follow-up piece will outline my own forecasts. The pandemic has raised question marks over all the usual measures of unemployment … Continue reading A quick dive into the UK labour market data
One of the biggest threats to the economic recovery is a second wave of job losses as the government’s job retention scheme (JRS) is wound down. The Resolution Foundation has some good analysis here. Nonetheless, the headline figure of 9.3 million for the number of jobs that have been supported by the JRS may overstate … Continue reading Are 9.3 million people really still on furlough?
The economic data for April were bound to be awful and those for the public finances were no exception. Government borrowing last month alone (a record £62.1 billion) was almost as large as the deficit in the whole of last year (£62.7 billion). This included £14 billion for the first full month of the coronavirus … Continue reading We can’t go on like this