According to the latest official data, the UK has seen a much larger fall in GDP during the pandemic than almost any country in Europe. The worst hit economies are actually Greece and Spain. But the UK appears to have suffered much more than France, Germany, Italy, or Sweden. This needs some explaining. Let’s deal … Continue reading Why has the UK economy been among the worst hit by Covid?
I often think my fellow economists are a miserable bunch. Survey after survey has predicted that the UK economy will take years to recover even to pre-Covid levels, with unemployment set to spiral and the fallout from Brexit only getting worse. But as we know, the consensus among followers of the ‘dismal science’ has often … Continue reading The UK economy will bounce back this year – here’s why
New year, new lockdown. I’m instinctively sceptical that such severe restrictions on our lives can ever be justified, but two factors have surely tipped the balance in their favour. The first, of course, is the far more rapid transmission of the new Covid variant. This has increased the benefits of locking down, as the risk … Continue reading ‘Lockdown 3’ won’t be anywhere near as bad as the original
I know 2021 will be another tough year for many people and businesses, but I’m aiming here to provide some counterbalance to the more negative commentary you can easily find elsewhere... 1. The household sector (in aggregate) has built up substantial savings during the pandemic that could be used to fuel a strong recovery in … Continue reading 12 reasons to be more cheerful about the UK economy in 2021