The proliferation of daft conspiracy theories has been one of the more depressing features of the painful process of leaving the EU. You might expect this nonsense from notoriously sloppy journalists, ‘fake news’ websites, or desperate politicians. But even some otherwise fairly sensible people have claimed that government policy is being driven by a cabal … Continue reading Debunking the myths of Brexit ‘disaster capitalism’
To begin with, let’s be clear that the UK’s second quarter GDP data were disappointing. The 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) fall was the first decline since 2012, and also bigger than expected (the consensus forecast was for no change). What’s more, the UK was, at the time, the only major economy to report an outright fall in … Continue reading Why Q2’s fall in UK GDP isn’t a game changer
The IMF is the latest official body to predict economic catastrophe – or at least a prolonged recession – if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. To be fair, the analysis presented in the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook is a good example of its kind and relatively easy to understand. Nonetheless, the conclusions are … Continue reading Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top
According to the latest estimates from the Centre for European Reform (CER), the UK economy was 2.5% smaller in the fourth quarter of 2018 than it would have been had Britain voted to remain in the EU referendum. The Bank of England has recently published similar work by the independent MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, which suggests that the … Continue reading Is the UK economy already 2.5% smaller as a result of Brexit?