Tag: Brexit

Why Q2’s fall in UK GDP isn’t a game changer

To begin with, let’s be clear that the UK’s second quarter GDP data were disappointing. The 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) fall was the first decline since 2012, and also bigger than expected (the consensus forecast was for no change). What’s more, the UK was, at the time, the only major economy to report an outright fall in … Continue reading Why Q2’s fall in UK GDP isn’t a game changer

Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top

The IMF is the latest official body to predict economic catastrophe – or at least a prolonged recession – if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. To be fair, the analysis presented in the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook is a good example of its kind and relatively easy to understand. Nonetheless, the conclusions are … Continue reading Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top