Tag: Brexit

What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

I’ve finally found time to review the NBER Working Paper which claims that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by as much as 8% since the vote to leave in 2016. As Martin Wolf writes in today’s Financial Times, “if this is even roughly correct, Brexit has been nothing short of an economic disaster”. But I think … Continue reading What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’ →

The Chancellor is set to raise taxes again – by as much as £30 billion

It has felt like an eternity, but Chancellor Rachel Reeves will finally unveil her second Autumn Budget on Wednesday 26 November. This blog begins with an explanation of how the Budget process works, then attempts to estimate the size of the new financial hole. The next instalment will look at how she is likely to … Continue reading The Chancellor is set to raise taxes again – by as much as £30 billion →

November Budget needs to be big and bold

A year ago, the Chancellor promised that the £40 billion of tax increases announced in her first Budget would be a “one-off”. But it is now almost certain that her second Budget next month will deliver more of the same. What’s gone wrong? The technical answer is that OBR is expected to predict that the … Continue reading November Budget needs to be big and bold →