The high probability that the Russian government will stop paying its international debts is well down the list of things to worry about as the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds. But this risk should certainly be somewhere on that list – as the fallout from past defaults has shown. We have been here several times before. … Continue reading What happens if Russia defaults?
Spare a thought for the staff of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), beavering away on a new set of economic and fiscal forecasts for the Chancellor’s Spring Statement on 23rd March. The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made a difficulty task almost impossible. It makes sense to present a range of … Continue reading Too soon to write off the recovery – or raise taxes
Putin’s murderous assault on the people of Ukraine is a threat to peace and security worldwide. But someone also has to worry about the impact on the UK economy. The fallout should prompt a rethink of the response to the cost of living crisis and the tax hikes planned for April. The catastrophe in Ukraine … Continue reading When facts change, fiscal policy should change too
Here are the slides from a talk I gave this lunchtime to sixth-form students interested in economics and finance... global-economic-overview-21-february-2022Download