The strong growth in UK GDP reported in the first quarter will not be sustained. At best the economy is set to stagnate again in the second quarter, and possibly in the third too. Some good news for a change. The first official estimate for the first quarter confirmed that the UK economy made a flying start … Continue reading “As good as it gets” (reprise)
Tag: construction
What to make of the latest UK GDP data
It is great to be able to start with some good news… The 0.3% growth in the UK economy in November was a bit better than consensus expectations of around 0.1%, with some favourable revisions to previous data as well. The detail showed that the bounce in November was driven in part by a rebound in car … Continue reading What to make of the latest UK GDP data
Why Labour’s “build, baby, build” mission is struggling to take off
Steve Reed, the newish Secretary of State for Housing, has certainly brought fresh energy to the role. This has even extended to waving MAGA-style caps with Trump-like calls to “build, baby, build!”. But while it is still early days, little has improved on the ground. The construction sector is worth watching closely for at least … Continue reading Why Labour’s “build, baby, build” mission is struggling to take off
Could a house price crash still trigger a recession?
Fingers crossed, it looks like the UK has dodged the severe recession that many had feared. But we are not out of the woods yet. Could a sharp fall in house prices still drag the economy down? Many better economists than me have been tripped up by their forecasts for the UK housing market. For … Continue reading Could a house price crash still trigger a recession?
Plain-speaking Economics 