The agreement reached between the UK and the EU is as good a deal as we were ever likely to get. I will leave others to comment in detail on the legal and technical aspects, but here are five key points (my personal views) on the economics. First, it important to be clear about the … Continue reading A ‘thumbs up’ to the Brexit deal
At the weekend former PM Gordon Brown claimed that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would leave Boris Johnson isolated ‘with no friends around the world’. This is a familiar theme. In 2019, for example, Brown warned that the UK was ‘sleepwalking into oblivion', and that a nation once admired for its tolerance and pragmatism now presented … Continue reading Would a ‘no deal’ Brexit really leave the UK friendless?
(This piece was written on 27th November. Since then the new survey evidence has suggested that the hit to GDP from the November lockdown was smaller than expected, which is obviously consistent with the relatively upbeat message here.) For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over
I’m only just coming to terms with how cross I am about the Chancellor’s speech today. This should have been a relatively uneventful one-year Spending Review, setting departmental limits for 2021-22, and summarising the latest economic and fiscal forecasts from the OBR. But, in my opinion, Rishi Sunak made two big mistakes. First, he got … Continue reading Sunak breaks the fundamental rule: ‘first, do no harm’