The lacklustre GDP data in May have put a significant dent in hopes of a rapid turnaround in the UK economy, but I’m not going to bin my relatively optimistic forecasts just yet. I still expect the shape of the recovery to look roughly like a 'V', with GDP back close to pre-Covid levels by … Continue reading Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
Tag: GDP
‘V’ for recovery!
The recovery in the UK economy is already taking shape nicely – and the shape looks increasingly like a ‘V’, where activity 'bounces back’ quickly and returns to more normal levels much sooner than most currently expect. Despite this, many commentators are still pessimistic and even eager to emphasise the downside risks. It is time … Continue reading ‘V’ for recovery!
It could have been worse
The unprecedented 20.4 per cent slump in UK GDP in a single month is obviously headline news, but still needs to be put in context. There are three key points. First, the April numbers are old news – about two months old. That’s an awful long time during a rapidly evolving crisis like this. Indeed, … Continue reading It could have been worse
A deeper dive into the OECD’s forecasts
On Wednesday the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook presented a relatively downbeat assessment of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy (more ‘U’ than ‘V’). The report also flagged up some specific concerns about the vulnerability of the UK, which prompted some particularly gloomy headlines here. But is the OECD on to anything … Continue reading A deeper dive into the OECD’s forecasts
Plain-speaking Economics 