Tag: UK economy

What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?

According to Brexit pessimists, the UK economy is already as much as 3% smaller than it would have been if the UK had voted to remain in the EU, and the deal that Boris Johnson’s government has negotiated could reduce GDP by another 7% over the next ten years. Fortunately, neither of these numbers stands … Continue reading What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?

Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top

The IMF is the latest official body to predict economic catastrophe – or at least a prolonged recession – if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. To be fair, the analysis presented in the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook is a good example of its kind and relatively easy to understand. Nonetheless, the conclusions are … Continue reading Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top

Common Market 2.0 would be a Brexit capitulation too far

The 'Better Brexit’ website provides a clear explanation of the proposal known as ‘Common Market 2.0’, or 'Norway Plus', which is being pushed hard as a solution to the current impasse in parliament. However, it also exposes the fundamental weaknesses of this plan. Rather than being a reasonable compromise, my fear is that it would … Continue reading Common Market 2.0 would be a Brexit capitulation too far

Why we should cut tariffs, whether others follow or not

On the morning of 13th March the government confirmed that it intends to eliminate 87% of tariffs on goods imported into Britain, but only if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, and only for an initial 12 month period. This plan therefore raised just two cheers from me. However, as I write this, … Continue reading Why we should cut tariffs, whether others follow or not

Is the UK economy £100bn smaller because of austerity?

In a thought-provoking blog for the New Economics Foundation (NEF), Alfie Stirling has made the striking claim that the cumulative effect of austerity since 2010 has been to reduce the level of UK GDP in 2018/19 by 4.7%, or almost £100 billion. This is equivalent to “around £1,500 for every woman, man and child this year alone”.  … Continue reading Is the UK economy £100bn smaller because of austerity?

Is the UK economy already 2.5% smaller as a result of Brexit?

According to the latest estimates from the Centre for European Reform (CER), the UK economy was 2.5% smaller in the fourth quarter of 2018 than it would have been had Britain voted to remain in the EU referendum. The Bank of England has recently published similar work by the independent MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, which suggests that the … Continue reading Is the UK economy already 2.5% smaller as a result of Brexit?