The horror! Yesterday we discovered that UK economic output — as measured by GDP — fell by 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year, 0.1 per cent worse than the 1.5 per cent originally reported. This is practically a rounding error. To put it in context, as recently as March the Office for Budget Responsibility, … Continue reading Ignore the gloomsters, the economy is roaring back
Tag: GDP
Brexit: the good, the bad, and the little bit ugly
How time doesn’t always fly. It is a long five years since the UK voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum and the country still seems as divided about the impacts as ever. But as a Leave voter and Brexit optimist, I’m feeling increasingly positive. Let’s start with three things that have gone … Continue reading Brexit: the good, the bad, and the little bit ugly
A pensions tax raid isn’t just bad politics, it’s awful economics
Here we go again. The Daily Telegraph is reporting that Treasury officials are “drawing up plans” for a pensions tax raid in the autumn to help pay for Covid. It might be more accurate to say that old plans are now being ‘dusted off’, but the quality of debate does not seem to have improved. For a … Continue reading A pensions tax raid isn’t just bad politics, it’s awful economics
Inflation risks are building – but does anybody care?
Many people have already written about how the ‘spectre of inflation’ has returned to haunt global investors. In reality, financial markets are still surprisingly relaxed about the risks, and most measures of inflation expectations have risen only slightly. This seems increasingly complacent. In part this reflects the persistently dovish messages from the world’s major central … Continue reading Inflation risks are building – but does anybody care?
Plain-speaking Economics 