Including thoughts on UK GDP, “rocket and feather” pricing at the pumps, should the BoE follow the ECB, US bond market intervention, German defence spending, and the latest UK evidence on “second round” effects... Theme of the Week The reassuringly strong GDP data added to evidence that the UK economy is holding up better than … Continue reading Weekly wrap – Has the UK economy really “turned the corner”?
Category: US economy
Another lurch to the left under Burnham could tip the economy over
Better news on inflation might lower bond yields regardless of the changes in Downing Street. But it seems more likely that honeymoon disappointment and Budget speculation will sap confidence further. This Friday, Andy Burnham is set to be confirmed as the new leader of the Labour Party and hence as the next Prime Minister of … Continue reading Another lurch to the left under Burnham could tip the economy over
Why Reform’s tax-free overtime plan is a bad idea
Reform’s proposed tax break on overtime is likely to feature prominently in the Makerfield pitch. But it is also yet another example of a policy that is both good politics and terrible economics. The Reform party is proposing that people who earn less than £75,000 and work overtime above a 40-hour week will pay no income tax … Continue reading Why Reform’s tax-free overtime plan is a bad idea
Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
In the early stages of the Iran crisis the markets priced in a relatively benign scenario. The conflict was expected to be short, lasting days if not weeks, with limited fallout for energy prices and for the global economy. A month on, this has proved to be far too optimistic. Indeed, the future looks increasingly … Continue reading Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
Plain-speaking Economics 