Category: US economy

What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

I’ve finally found time to review the NBER Working Paper which claims that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by as much as 8% since the vote to leave in 2016. As Martin Wolf writes in today’s Financial Times, “if this is even roughly correct, Brexit has been nothing short of an economic disaster”. But I think … Continue reading What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’ →

The case for a late Budget

The Chancellor has confirmed that the date of the Autumn Budget will be Wednesday 26 November. This is relatively late, raising fears that a longer period of speculation and uncertainty will undermine confidence even further, but there are always trade-offs. I can think of five reasons why waiting might make sense. First, and perhaps most … Continue reading The case for a late Budget →

US-EU trade ‘deal’ avoids an even worse outcome, but this is still little to cheer

Brexiteers can be forgiven for indulging in a little ‘schadenfreude’ at the news that the EU has agreed the principles of a trade deal with the US on worse terms than the UK was able to achieve. Nonetheless, there are very few winners here. For a start, a final agreement is still some way off. … Continue reading US-EU trade ‘deal’ avoids an even worse outcome, but this is still little to cheer →