If you believe some of the headlines, the global economic shocks are already hitting ‘Brexit Britain’ much harder than other countries. Even the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has warned that inflation is set to be higher for longer in the UK, and growth weaker. The IMF, OECD and currency traders all apparently agree, … Continue reading Is ‘Brexit Britain’ really the ‘sick man of Europe’?
Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)
I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)
G7 tax deal fails to live up to the hype
The G7 agreement on new principles for taxing multinationals is not the ‘breakthrough’ that many are claiming. It probably won’t make a lot of difference to the tax most companies pay either. Mind you, given the collateral damage that could be done, I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing! To recap, G7 finance ministers … Continue reading G7 tax deal fails to live up to the hype
A deeper dive into the OECD’s forecasts
On Wednesday the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook presented a relatively downbeat assessment of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy (more ‘U’ than ‘V’). The report also flagged up some specific concerns about the vulnerability of the UK, which prompted some particularly gloomy headlines here. But is the OECD on to anything … Continue reading A deeper dive into the OECD’s forecasts