Category: Monetary policy

Is the Treasury ‘crying wolf’ over the debt interest bill?

The latest data on the UK’s public finances have provided more ammunition for those arguing that the government cannot afford to cut taxes. However, the economic reality is far more nuanced – especially when it comes to debt interest payments. The bad news is that the government borrowed another £14.0 billion in May, £3.7bn more … Continue reading Is the Treasury ‘crying wolf’ over the debt interest bill?

Bank of England falls further behind in race to tame inflation

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised interest rates by just a quarter point, to 1.25 per cent. This was the fifth increase in as many meetings, but still leaves rates near historic lows. In my view, this was a mistake. This decision is hard to square with April’s consumer price inflation … Continue reading Bank of England falls further behind in race to tame inflation

Has UK inflation already peaked?

After a long period where almost everyone has been too complacent about inflation, the tide may finally be about to turn. Inflation is now set to peak sooner and fall faster than many expect – even in ‘Brexit Britain’. Admittedly, this is partly a reflection of just how far inflation has already risen. The headline … Continue reading Has UK inflation already peaked?

No, sterling is still in no danger of becoming an ‘emerging market currency’

Every now and again someone – often Kamal Sharma from Bank of America (BofA) – warns that sterling is at risk of being downgraded to ‘emerging market’ status. This is lapped up and gleefully retweeted by anyone with an axe to grind against Brexit, or Boris Johnson.,, However, as Sharma himself rightly said in his … Continue reading No, sterling is still in no danger of becoming an ‘emerging market currency’