Category: Monetary policy

Is the OBR right to warn against tax cuts?

On Thursday the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s independent fiscal watchdog, published its latest annual report on the long-term sustainability of the public finances and the fiscal risks facing the UK. This made for grim reading, as these reports always do. But this time, the report has been widely interpreted as a warning … Continue reading Is the OBR right to warn against tax cuts?

Is the Treasury ‘crying wolf’ over the debt interest bill?

The latest data on the UK’s public finances have provided more ammunition for those arguing that the government cannot afford to cut taxes. However, the economic reality is far more nuanced – especially when it comes to debt interest payments. The bad news is that the government borrowed another £14.0 billion in May, £3.7bn more … Continue reading Is the Treasury ‘crying wolf’ over the debt interest bill?

Bank of England falls further behind in race to tame inflation

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised interest rates by just a quarter point, to 1.25 per cent. This was the fifth increase in as many meetings, but still leaves rates near historic lows. In my view, this was a mistake. This decision is hard to square with April’s consumer price inflation … Continue reading Bank of England falls further behind in race to tame inflation

No, sterling is still in no danger of becoming an ‘emerging market currency’

Every now and again someone – often Kamal Sharma from Bank of America (BofA) – warns that sterling is at risk of being downgraded to ‘emerging market’ status. This is lapped up and gleefully retweeted by anyone with an axe to grind against Brexit, or Boris Johnson.,, However, as Sharma himself rightly said in his … Continue reading No, sterling is still in no danger of becoming an ‘emerging market currency’