Including thoughts on the latest news from the labour market (not all bad), signs that the economy retains some positive momentum, and what could still go wrong - including autumn hikes in both taxes and interest rates. Theme of the Week This week’s official labour market data were grim. The UK economy continues to shed payroll jobs, … Continue reading Weekly wrap – is UK productivity finally recovering?
Category: financial markets
A sceptical first take on moving growth policy from HMT to No.10 North
“Treasury Orthodoxy” gets a bad rap. Shuffling responsibilities is pointless unless the policy choices improve. And the fiscal rules, OBR, and bond market vigilantes will all still be big constraints. Andy Burnham has announced that responsibility for national economic growth policy will move from HM Treasury to No.10 North. I am surprised that this announcement … Continue reading A sceptical first take on moving growth policy from HMT to No.10 North
Bank of England edges closer to an autumn hike
A small rate rise soon could be preferable to larger increases later - a case of “a stitch in time saves nine”. However, subdued money growth and strong competition should help keep inflation down. The Bank of England’s MPC left UK interest rates at 3.75% today, as expected, but the 6-3 split was more hawkish. … Continue reading Bank of England edges closer to an autumn hike
Weekly wrap: a perfect 10 for stagecraft, a shaky 3 for substance
My regular review of news over the past seven days, including thoughts on Burnham’s first policy announcements, overseas aid, “anti-social businesses”, and the latest economic data (good, in parts). A week may be a long time in politics, but the new team at No.10 has navigated it well. A polished sequence of flashy policy announcements … Continue reading Weekly wrap: a perfect 10 for stagecraft, a shaky 3 for substance
Plain-speaking Economics 