I often think my fellow economists are a miserable bunch. Survey after survey has predicted that the UK economy will take years to recover even to pre-Covid levels, with unemployment set to spiral and the fallout from Brexit only getting worse. But as we know, the consensus among followers of the ‘dismal science’ has often … Continue reading The UK economy will bounce back this year – here’s why
Tag: lockdown
‘Lockdown 3’ won’t be anywhere near as bad as the original
New year, new lockdown. I’m instinctively sceptical that such severe restrictions on our lives can ever be justified, but two factors have surely tipped the balance in their favour. The first, of course, is the far more rapid transmission of the new Covid variant. This has increased the benefits of locking down, as the risk … Continue reading ‘Lockdown 3’ won’t be anywhere near as bad as the original
12 reasons to be more cheerful about the UK economy in 2021
I know 2021 will be another tough year for many people and businesses, but I’m aiming here to provide some counterbalance to the more negative commentary you can easily find elsewhere... 1. The household sector (in aggregate) has built up substantial savings during the pandemic that could be used to fuel a strong recovery in … Continue reading 12 reasons to be more cheerful about the UK economy in 2021
Our economic emergency is almost over
(This piece was written on 27th November. Since then the new survey evidence has suggested that the hit to GDP from the November lockdown was smaller than expected, which is obviously consistent with the relatively upbeat message here.) For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over
Plain-speaking Economics 