In the early stages of the Iran crisis the markets priced in a relatively benign scenario. The conflict was expected to be short, lasting days if not weeks, with limited fallout for energy prices and for the global economy. A month on, this has proved to be far too optimistic. Indeed, the future looks increasingly … Continue reading Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
Category: Politics
Spring Statement was yet another missed opportunity
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement sent a signal of “steady as she goes”. Unfortunately, what was really needed is a change of course. There was plenty of party political knockabout, but no major policy announcements and nothing to lift the spirits of consumers or businesses. This might have been fine if all were well. But there is little … Continue reading Spring Statement was yet another missed opportunity
Better UK economic news owes little to Labour’s policy choices
Friday was a relatively good day for UK economic data, with the latest news on the public finances, retail sales, and the PMI survey all better than expected. This followed Wednesday’s confirmation that headline inflation fell back in January. But is this really evidence that the worst is over – and are the Labour government … Continue reading Better UK economic news owes little to Labour’s policy choices
Four insights on the latest UK labour data (warning! contains nuance…)
Many people will read whatever they like into today’s new data on the labour market without bothering to look past the headlines. And to be fair, those raising concerns about the recent trends in unemployment and in pay are right to do so. Nonetheless, the underlying picture is a little more nuanced. Here are four key points … Continue reading Four insights on the latest UK labour data (warning! contains nuance…)
Plain-speaking Economics 