Category: Everyday Economics

Has UK inflation already peaked?

After a long period where almost everyone has been too complacent about inflation, the tide may finally be about to turn. Inflation is now set to peak sooner and fall faster than many expect – even in ‘Brexit Britain’. Admittedly, this is partly a reflection of just how far inflation has already risen. The headline … Continue reading Has UK inflation already peaked?

An online sales tax would be more trouble than it is worth

The UK government has been consulting on the concept of an ‘online sales tax’, or OST, which could raise £1-2 billion annually to help pay for a reduction in business rates for physical retailers. I submitted a response to the consultation, which is available here... ost-consultation-response-20-may-2022-julian-jessopDownload

Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession

If you believe the media coverage of the latest consumer confidence surveys, household spending is set to collapse under the weight of the cost of living crisis, dragging the UK economy into a deep recession. But how reliable are these signals? As always, it is worth digging past the headlines. The GfK measure of consumer … Continue reading Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession

Is inflation really a lot higher for poorer people?

The Office for National Statistics will shortly be publishing new figures on inflation rates for different types of household. They will also be updating the method for collecting individual prices from supermarkets. However, anyone hoping for evidence that inflation is much higher for low-income households is likely to be disappointed. In particular, the anti-poverty campaigner … Continue reading Is inflation really a lot higher for poorer people?