The early omens for 2026 are not good. The UK is stumbling into the New Year on the brink of recession. Indeed, the economy stopped growing last summer as Budget jitters began to undermine confidence and spending again. Only some favourable rounding in August prevented headline GDP from falling in every month from July to … Continue reading The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
Tag: recession
Budget speculation kills growth
The further contraction in the UK economy in October confirms that Budget speculation has killed growth, with GDP falling by 0.1% on both the single month and three month on three month comparisons. What’s more, the weakness was broad based (so not just the fallout from cyber attack at JLR). But this leaves some important questions to … Continue reading Budget speculation kills growth
A presentation on the UK economy and monetary policy
Here are the slides from a presentation I gave earlier today to the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee hosted by the IEA. This covered the latest news on the global and the UK economies, the state of play on tariffs, the economic consequences of Mr Trump, how central banks should respond, and how I would vote … Continue reading A presentation on the UK economy and monetary policy
Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
The news that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, lifting the three-month growth rate to 0.6%, is obviously welcome. But these ONS figures should come plastered with health warnings. For a start, monthly GDP data are notoriously volatile, and often revised. A sharp correction is possible in March and especially in April, when … Continue reading Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
Plain-speaking Economics 