If you believe the media coverage of the latest consumer confidence surveys, household spending is set to collapse under the weight of the cost of living crisis, dragging the UK economy into a deep recession. But how reliable are these signals? As always, it is worth digging past the headlines. The GfK measure of consumer … Continue reading Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession
Tag: recession
Podcast on UK inflation and monetary policy
I recorded a podcast for the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) on Friday 6th May on UK inflation, definitions of 'recession' and 'stagflation', and what more the Bank of England could (and should) have done. You can listen here... https://ieapodcast.podbean.com/e/interest-rates-how-to-control-inflation/
Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too
The latest UK GDP numbers were better than expected, but it would still be dangerous to raise taxes in the March Budget. This would be far too soon after a year when the economy contracted by nearly 10% and with a renewed decline almost certain this quarter. To recap, UK GDP rose by 1.2% m/m in December … Continue reading Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too
A glass-half-full take on UK GDP
The real ‘news’ in today’s official GDP data for Q2 is not that the UK economy shrank for a second successive quarter in the three months to June, thus meeting the usual definition of a ‘recession’. That was a racing certainty anyway given the collapse in economic activity in April and the limited recovery in … Continue reading A glass-half-full take on UK GDP
Plain-speaking Economics 