The claim that Brexit has already shrunk the UK economy by “as much as 8%” is based on flawed analysis and should not be relied upon – especially as an argument for rejoining the EU. This blog looks again at one of the most common ways of estimating the “economic damage” allegedly done by Brexit, … Continue reading Three reasons why you should never trust a “doppelgänger”
Tag: GDP
Subdued money growth should limit inflation risks
The jump in UK inflation from 3.0% to 3.3% in March is obviously bad news but not quite as bad as some had feared (or at least no worse). In particular, the Bank of England had expected this number to be “close to 3½%” when interest rates were left on hold last month. Moreover, this jump can … Continue reading Subdued money growth should limit inflation risks
The Bank is right to talk tough on inflation
The Bank of England MPC’s decision to keep interest rates on hold this week was widely predicted, but the accompanying language was more hawkish than expected. The clear message was that the Bank no longer has a bias towards further cuts and is now ready to change rates in either direction. This has already triggered a sharp … Continue reading The Bank is right to talk tough on inflation
Spring Statement was yet another missed opportunity
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement sent a signal of “steady as she goes”. Unfortunately, what was really needed is a change of course. There was plenty of party political knockabout, but no major policy announcements and nothing to lift the spirits of consumers or businesses. This might have been fine if all were well. But there is little … Continue reading Spring Statement was yet another missed opportunity
