Category: Trade policy

What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

I’ve finally found time to review the NBER Working Paper which claims that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by as much as 8% since the vote to leave in 2016. As Martin Wolf writes in today’s Financial Times, “if this is even roughly correct, Brexit has been nothing short of an economic disaster”. But I think … Continue reading What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’ →

The ‘Brexit blame game’ is pretty desperate stuff

Rachel Reeves is getting her excuses in early ahead of next month’s Budget, which looks set to be a painful repeat of last October’s “one off”. The Chancellor has already blamed “external headwinds”, “Tory austerity” and “the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget”. It is no surprise that she has now dropped the “B-word” too. … Continue reading The ‘Brexit blame game’ is pretty desperate stuff →

Better news on growth, but still not good enough

The latest GDP data should ease fears that the UK economy is sliding back into recession. But growth is still too weak to fix the public finances, or encourage hiring and investment, and there are already signs that any positive momentum is fading again. First, though, the good news. GDP grew by 0.3% in the … Continue reading Better news on growth, but still not good enough →