Category: Trade policy

The pro and cons of extending the Brexit transition

It’s been impossible to ignore the calls for the UK government to announce that it will be seeking an extension to the Brexit transition period (or at least to make clear that it’s still keeping its options open) as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Here I review the arguments on both sides – before … Continue reading The pro and cons of extending the Brexit transition

Is the ‘Brexit bounce’ the real deal?

Economists are divided on whether there will be a significant boost to the UK economy from a reduction in Brexit uncertainty. I’m optimistic and expect growth to accelerate over the course of 2020 and beyond. Others are not, arguing that the best we can expect is more certainty of a bad outcome. Here’s a summary … Continue reading Is the ‘Brexit bounce’ the real deal?

Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?

Ever since the 2016 referendum, economists have attempted to estimate what Brexit ‘has already cost’ the UK economy and households. It won’t be a surprise to see some of the most depressing numbers dusted off this week to mark the departure from the EU. But all these studies should be taken with a large pinch … Continue reading Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?

What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?

According to Brexit pessimists, the UK economy is already as much as 3% smaller than it would have been if the UK had voted to remain in the EU, and the deal that Boris Johnson’s government has negotiated could reduce GDP by another 7% over the next ten years. Fortunately, neither of these numbers stands … Continue reading What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?

Yellowhammer misses the mark

After a lot of hype, the Operation Yellowhammer briefing has failed to substantiate the warnings of 'chaos' if the UK leaves the EU without a formal Withdrawal Agreement. The published report appears to be an honest attempt to identify the potential risks of a no-deal Brexit, in order that the government can prepare for and … Continue reading Yellowhammer misses the mark

No, this still isn’t a ‘sterling crisis’

The recent slide in the pound against both the dollar and euro has prompted talk of ‘meltdown’ and ‘free fall’. Some commentators have already called this a ‘sterling crisis’, and speculated about what Tory politicians would be saying if it were happening under a Labour government. Even the normally sensible Conservative MP, Sam Gyimah, has described … Continue reading No, this still isn’t a ‘sterling crisis’

NHS scaremongering shouldn’t block a US-UK trade deal

‘Americans want our NHS’, ‘people before profits’, ‘#NHSNotForSale’… it’s always been difficult to have a sensible discussion about healthcare in the UK, but if you combine the NHS with both Brexit and Trump, it seems almost impossible. Fortunately, there are still some people – even on Twitter – who are willing to engage in constructive … Continue reading NHS scaremongering shouldn’t block a US-UK trade deal