If you are trying to predict the outlook for unemployment it is, of course, essential to get the starting point right. This blog therefore runs through the latest available official data and employment surveys. A follow-up piece will outline my own forecasts. The pandemic has raised question marks over all the usual measures of unemployment … Continue reading A quick dive into the UK labour market data
Category: Labour markets
Today’s headlines understandably focus on the latest rise in unemployment, especially among the young. Losing a job is potentially a life-changer for many people. But it is no shock that the UK labour market has weakened given the depth of the Covid recession. The real news is that the deterioration is not as bad as … Continue reading Is the UK heading for a ‘tsunami’ of job losses?
I can understand why the government is launching a campaign to encourage people to go back to work. Its own dire warnings about the importance of staying at home had contributed to a climate of fear that perhaps only the government itself can now undo. But there is also a danger that attempts to replicate … Continue reading Home working choices shouldn’t be the government’s business
One of the biggest threats to the economic recovery is a second wave of job losses as the government’s job retention scheme (JRS) is wound down. The Resolution Foundation has some good analysis here. Nonetheless, the headline figure of 9.3 million for the number of jobs that have been supported by the JRS may overstate … Continue reading Are 9.3 million people really still on furlough?