Brexit talks resumed this week with growing hopes that a trade deal can be done in time for the October EU summit. This follows speculation that the UK has softened its position after Boris Johnson was ‘shocked by a London School of Economics report suggesting that no deal would cost Britain up to three times … Continue reading Would a ‘no deal’ Brexit really cost three times more than Covid?
It’s been impossible to ignore the calls for the UK government to announce that it will be seeking an extension to the Brexit transition period (or at least to make clear that it’s still keeping its options open) as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Here I review the arguments on both sides – before … Continue reading The pro and cons of extending the Brexit transition
Ever since the 2016 referendum, Brexit pessimists have been highlighting the damage that they think has already been done to UK GDP by the vote to leave. This narrative is looking increasingly tired. Indeed, last year the UK economy actually grew faster than its peers in the rest of the EU. Now that Brexit is … Continue reading Has Brexit Britain turned the corner?
Economists are divided on whether there will be a significant boost to the UK economy from a reduction in Brexit uncertainty. I’m optimistic and expect growth to accelerate over the course of 2020 and beyond. Others are not, arguing that the best we can expect is more certainty of a bad outcome. Here’s a summary … Continue reading Is the ‘Brexit bounce’ the real deal?