Category: Brexit

Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

Will Brexit really shrink the UK economy by 4 per cent?

"Now it’s official. The Government’s own fiscal watchdog has confirmed that Brexit will shrink the UK economy by 4pc, costing the average household thousands of pounds." This is how many are interpreting the latest analysis by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which was published alongside the October Budget. This analysis seems to be … Continue reading Will Brexit really shrink the UK economy by 4 per cent?

UK economy to catch up by Christmas

Most of the coverage of the latest UK GDP figures has been downbeat. Two headlines sum up the responses: ‘the best of the recovery is behind us’, and ‘the UK economy has reclaimed its status as the G7’s laggard’. ‘Stagflation’ is back on the agenda again too. I would rather focus on the positives, but let’s begin … Continue reading UK economy to catch up by Christmas