400 words for The Independent, published on 24 June 2026

A decade ago, the British people voted to leave the EU and restore sovereignty to the UK government. Westminster has since regained control over laws and borders, run its own trade policy, and saved tens of billions of pounds in contributions to the EU budget. On this basis, Brexit has been a success.

Indeed, multiple polls show that support for rejoining the EU crumbles when people are presented with the costs and conditions of membership, and that most still want key decisions to be made by politicians who they can actually vote out.

This democratic choice has also laid the foundations for a stronger economy. Benefits can already be seen in many areas where the government has begun to use the Brexit freedoms.

Examples include agriculture, where subsidies are now better targeted, and animal welfare, with UK bans on live animal exports and industrial sand eel fishing.

The financial services sector was nervous about Brexit. But after seeing the benefits from pro-growth reforms, the City is now campaigning against closer alignment with EU rules.

Outside the Customs Union, the UK has used its independence to secure faster, better trade deals worldwide, and to cut tariffs unilaterally.

Outside the Single Market, the UK has gained greater freedoms to provide state aid, for good or ill, and to reduce VAT.

Looking ahead, there is enormous potential to benefit from smarter regulation of new technologies, including AI. There have already been important Brexit wins in fields such as gene editing.

There have been some upfront costs. Business investment was initially held back by uncertainty after the vote to leave, but it is now recovering as that uncertainty recedes.

New frictions at the UK-EU border have weighed on goods trade, but by far less than feared, while overall trade has been stronger than expected.

It is nearly impossible to isolate Brexit’s impact from other factors, such as Covid and relatively high energy costs. But studies claiming that the UK economy has taken a hit of “as much as 8%” fail to do so miserably.

A more balanced view is that Brexit has had little overall impact, so far. Whether it ultimately leaves the economy weaker or stronger will depend on the choices made by the UK government – which is as it should be.

This was my side of a debate with Sean O’Grady. You can read both sides here.

Ps. I am now on holiday! Normal service will resume on Monday 6 July.

• Applied economics
• Brexit
• financial markets
• Politics
• Trade policy