The Treasury is keeping busy, but hopefully not too busy. On the same day as the Prime Minister unveiled the ‘health and social care levy’, the Chancellor revealed last week that we will only have to wait another 50 days for the Autumn Budget, due on October 27. The focus next month will probably be on … Continue reading Stronger economy should save us from further tax rises
Tag: OBR
It’s time to pause QE
Consumers, businesses, and investors are increasingly optimistic about the prospects for the UK economy, and independent forecasts are continually being revised up. Policymakers at the Treasury and Bank of England should now be reassessing their plans too. The consensus at the start of the year was that UK GDP would grow by around 4% in … Continue reading It’s time to pause QE
Why we don’t need tax rises to pay for Covid
How deep a hole are we in? The Institute of Economic Affairs has just published a primer I’ve written on the state of the public finances, which digs into this question. On the bright side, I argue that there is no need for any form of austerity, including tax rises, to fill a gap left … Continue reading Why we don’t need tax rises to pay for Covid
Our economic emergency is almost over
(This piece was written on 27th November. Since then the new survey evidence has suggested that the hit to GDP from the November lockdown was smaller than expected, which is obviously consistent with the relatively upbeat message here.) For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over
Plain-speaking Economics 