The UK interest rate decision this week is finely balanced – so much so that I was not even sure which way I would vote. Nonetheless, over the course of writing this piece I have persuaded myself to switch to ‘no change’, even though the actual decision is still likely to be a cut. This … Continue reading Why the Bank of England should sit tight this week
Tag: jobs
“What to make of Trump’s tariffs”
In case of wider interest, here are the slides from a talk I will be giving to undergraduate students (mostly of economics) at an IEA summer school this week. Undergraduate presentation on Trump tariffs (August 2025)Download
UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
The first official estimates suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, which was better than most had expected. GDP per head increased by a respectable 0.5%. On the bright side, this should trigger a wave of upward revisions to growth forecasts for 2025 as a whole. (I … Continue reading UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
What to make of today’s UK jobs data
Tuesday’s official data on the state of the UK labour market have been interpreted in several conflicting ways, so here is an attempt to cut through the fog. I took two main points from the figures themselves. First, activity in the labour market continues to cool. I would not pay much attention to the headline … Continue reading What to make of today’s UK jobs data
Plain-speaking Economics 