Tag: GDP

‘Lockdown 3’ won’t be anywhere near as bad as the original

New year, new lockdown. I’m instinctively sceptical that such severe restrictions on our lives can ever be justified, but two factors have surely tipped the balance in their favour. The first, of course, is the far more rapid transmission of the new Covid variant. This has increased the benefits of locking down, as the risk … Continue reading ‘Lockdown 3’ won’t be anywhere near as bad as the original →

Would a ‘no deal’ Brexit really leave the UK friendless?

At the weekend former PM Gordon Brown claimed that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would leave Boris Johnson isolated ‘with no friends around the world’. This is a familiar theme. In 2019, for example, Brown warned that the UK was ‘sleepwalking into oblivion', and that a nation once admired for its tolerance and pragmatism now presented … Continue reading Would a ‘no deal’ Brexit really leave the UK friendless? →

Our economic emergency is almost over

(This piece was written on 27th November. Since then the new survey evidence has suggested that the hit to GDP from the November lockdown was smaller than expected, which is obviously consistent with the relatively upbeat message here.) For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over →