Frankly, I would prefer to ignore the economic forecasts from the IMF, or other multinational organisations like the OECD, because they add little value. However, the latest numbers for the UK have been trumpeted as a big win for the government, and for the embattled Chancellor in particular, as part of what appears to be … Continue reading Are the IMF’s latest forecasts really “good news for Rachel Reeves”?
Tag: g7
Lies, damned lies, and G7 league tables
The publication of the first official GDP data for the whole of 2021 has revived a highly politicised debate about how well the UK is doing, compared to our peers in the G7. Part of me doesn’t really care, but there are some important points here. First, the claim that the UK was the fastest … Continue reading Lies, damned lies, and G7 league tables
Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)
I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)
Has Brexit Britain turned the corner?
Ever since the 2016 referendum, Brexit pessimists have been highlighting the damage that they think has already been done to UK GDP by the vote to leave. This narrative is looking increasingly tired. Indeed, last year the UK economy actually grew faster than its peers in the rest of the EU. Now that Brexit is … Continue reading Has Brexit Britain turned the corner?
Plain-speaking Economics 