Tag: Budget

Some heretical thoughts on youth unemployment

The latest official data on the UK labour market were mostly reassuring, but younger workers have still borne the brunt of the job losses during the pandemic. How big a concern is this? And what, if anything, should be done about it? Let’s begin with the headline numbers. The latest increase in total unemployment, to … Continue reading Some heretical thoughts on youth unemployment

A quickie on the UK debt-to-GDP ratio…

Remember all the fuss last year when it was reported that the UK’s public debt-to-GDP ratio had hit 100%? This happened in the May data and again in July, but in both cases the figures were later revised down. In January 2021, net debt was still ‘only’ 97.9% of GDP. This is mainly because the … Continue reading A quickie on the UK debt-to-GDP ratio…

Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too

The latest UK GDP numbers were better than expected, but it would still be dangerous to raise taxes in the March Budget. This would be far too soon after a year when the economy contracted by nearly 10% and with a renewed decline almost certain this quarter. To recap, UK GDP rose by 1.2% m/m in December … Continue reading Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too

Sunak’s ‘tax bombshell’ is likely to be a damp squib

Here we go again… another day of alarming headlines about a tax ‘bombshell’ set to hit as soon as the Autumn Budget, with a ‘state pension grab’ chucked in too. Fortunately, there isn’t much substance in any of this – at least not yet. Let’s start by contrasting what the Sunday newspapers are saying. The … Continue reading Sunak’s ‘tax bombshell’ is likely to be a damp squib