Category: US economy

Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?

In the early stages of the Iran crisis the markets priced in a relatively benign scenario. The conflict was expected to be short, lasting days if not weeks, with limited fallout for energy prices and for the global economy. A month on, this has proved to be far too optimistic. Indeed, the future looks increasingly … Continue reading Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”? →

How should the UK respond to Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland?

President Trump has surely hit a new low with his threats to impose tariffs on European allies for daring to challenge his ambition to “acquire” Greenland. But the UK should not overreact and especially should not retaliate, whether with tariffs of our own or with other economic and financial sanctions. For a start, Trump’s latest … Continue reading How should the UK respond to Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland? →

What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

I’ve finally found time to review the NBER Working Paper which claims that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by as much as 8% since the vote to leave in 2016. As Martin Wolf writes in today’s Financial Times, “if this is even roughly correct, Brexit has been nothing short of an economic disaster”. But I think … Continue reading What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’ →