The Chancellor has confirmed that the date of the Autumn Budget will be Wednesday 26 November. This is relatively late, raising fears that a longer period of speculation and uncertainty will undermine confidence even further, but there are always trade-offs. I can think of five reasons why waiting might make sense. First, and perhaps most … Continue reading The case for a late Budget
Category: Monetary policy
How could a bond market crisis unfold?
The yields on UK government bonds, commonly known as “gilts”, are now consistently the highest among the G7 group of advanced economies. Why is this, and why should the rest of us care? The numbers alone are disturbing. The cost of new government borrowing for ten years is now around 4.8% in the UK, compared … Continue reading How could a bond market crisis unfold?
Will the UK need an IMF bailout?
This weekend the Sunday Telegraph led with Britain ‘heading towards IMF bailout’, citing three leading economists who are warning of a “1970s-style debt crisis unless the Chancellor changes course”. The three – Jagjit Chadha, Andrew Sentance and Willem Buiter – are not the usual suspects and their views should be taken seriously. The story was prompted … Continue reading Will the UK need an IMF bailout?
Will the July inflation data reveal an “Oasis bump”?
There has been some speculation that Wednesday’s UK CPI data for July will include an “Oasis bump”. In fact, the fallout from the reunion gigs is unlikely to have a significant impact on UK-wide inflation, and even less likely to influence UK monetary policy. Nonetheless, this is an interesting angle, so here goes anyway. (I’ve … Continue reading Will the July inflation data reveal an “Oasis bump”?
Plain-speaking Economics 