The news that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, lifting the three-month growth rate to 0.6%, is obviously welcome. But these ONS figures should come plastered with health warnings. For a start, monthly GDP data are notoriously volatile, and often revised. A sharp correction is possible in March and especially in April, when … Continue reading Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
Category: Labour markets
UK economy on a knife edge
The latest official data are perhaps not as bad as some headlines suggest, but they do confirm that the UK economy made a poor start to 2025. First, the raw numbers. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in January, against the consensus forecast of a 0.1% rise, led by a 0.9% fall in the production sector … Continue reading UK economy on a knife edge
UK economic and policy outlook
In case of wider interest, here are the slides from a brief presentation I made today. It was mostly gloomy, but did include some reasons for optimism... UK economic and policy outlook (24 February 2025)Download
What to make of today’s UK jobs data
Tuesday’s official data on the state of the UK labour market have been interpreted in several conflicting ways, so here is an attempt to cut through the fog. I took two main points from the figures themselves. First, activity in the labour market continues to cool. I would not pay much attention to the headline … Continue reading What to make of today’s UK jobs data
Plain-speaking Economics 